* Phase 1 refers to viruses that circulate among animals but still have not caused any human infection
* Phase 2: the virus, which affects domestic and wild animals, has infected a person, so it can be considered a potential pandemic threat
* Phase 3: The virus affects small groups of people and is given for the first time, the transmission from human to human, and not only from animals to humans. However, they are sporadic cases and under certain circumstances.
* Phase 4: The power of the virus to spread between people is checked and is capable of causing 'community outbreaks. " This significantly increases the risk of a pandemic. Any country or verify any suspected case should immediately contact with the WHO to assess the situation and coordinate the response. This phase shows a significant jump in the risk of a pandemic but does not mean that it inevitably occurs
* Step 5: It is characterized by the spread of virus from human to human by at least two countries in the same region. "Although many places are not affected, the statement of this phase is a clear sign that the pandemic is imminent and that the time to implement all necessary measures are just "according to the Organization.
* Phase 6: Pandemic phase. The outbreak of the disease has been recorded in most countries in different regions. Reaching this level means that the pandemic is underway, has begun. It can not be prevented, but just try to control.
Newspaper article
The Country of the day 01/05 / 09
"The experts advising the European Union is very clear. "Once you declare the pre-pandemic alert phase 5, passing through 6 is inevitable." Thus sharply yesterday Angus Nicoll, chief of the influenza program of the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC), the body which, from Stockholm, is responsible for advising the Commission of Health of the EU.
40% of Europeans are infected
Of course, Nicoll stressed that the current virus is not "so far, as bad as the one that caused the 1918 flu, but will have a considerable impact," he said. And when he speaks of "substantial" does not beat around the bush. "Between 40% and 50% of Europe's population" will be the new flu, he said. In a normal winter the incidence is around 15%, but varies a lot every year because the virus changes. "Keep in mind that seasonal influenza [the that occurs each winter] causes about 40,000 deaths each year in the EU, "said Nicoll, so that a new virus may have a significant impact. Of course, most will have a flu" mild ", with the usual exceptions when about these infections: "The elderly and the chronically ill, who will be in more danger. Therefore, the EU insists that every year, pandemic or not, the population is vaccinated.
Because the only It seems that good news does not change is that, despite the gradual escalation in the number of people infected and affected countries, the vast majority of forecasts is still good. is the exception of the Dead in Mexico (seven according to the World Health Organization), something for which no group of experts has an explanation, although some theories: that they began to try later, they were closer to the initial focus or had other previous pathologies that made them more vulnerable. Nicoll
insisted that "it is a flu virus and, therefore, it is easy to catch." The numbers prove it. In the USA and are 109 confirmed cases, including 23-month child who died on Wednesday. In Mexico, the WHO confirmed 97 of those who died seven. Spain is the next country to impact: 13 patients analysis which have tested positive for H1N1 and 101 new people under observation. Peru and Costa Rica have reported the first cases in Latin America outside of Mexico, which shows that it begins to open the road to the south. In total, the WHO-always more conservative in their accounts, yesterday gave 236 cases as safe. Wednesday was 148.
drip Despite ill health organization dependent on the UN ruled yesterday to raise the alert to level 6. "There is no sign that tells us we have to increase the level of alert," said Keiji Fukuda, acting director of WHO. However, the organization has only seven cases of confirmed deaths from the disease. "The reason for this large increase is that in Mexico are doing now thousands of laboratory tests on suspected cases, "said Fukuda. This country has already reported, according to WHO, 97 confirmed cases.
Fukuda tried to reassure on reserves antivirals. He explained that WHO has a stockpile of antiviral five million, acquired between 2005 and 2006 for emergency situations. Now, distribute two million of these treatments to developing countries, including Mexico. "countries are those most in need, "said the acting director of WHO. Fukuda explained that the laboratory responsible for the production of antivirals (such as Roche, prepared by the Tamilfu) increase the production of these drugs, "if necessary."
WHO warned that the southern hemisphere is now exposed to the H1N1 virus by the arrival of the winter season, "which can facilitate their spread." "It's something we watch very closely," he said.
Fukuda encouraged the governments of all countries to be alert to the evolution of the pandemic. "The x-ray of the situation indicates that the virus is behaving like a human flu virus, but with an ability to infect people more than that observed with H5N1," he said.
The acting director of WHO supported the president's request Mexico, which yesterday asked its citizens to stay at home. "The WHO advises those who have to travel and feel sick to stay home until symptoms subside. If you are traveling and you start to feel bad, it's best to go to a medical facility," said Fukuda, who recalled that the WHO does not support the measure to block travel to affected countries.
As WHO and CDC agree on is that now, with the virus present in a dozen countries, it makes no sense to ban flights to Mexico, as requested by France [Argentina and Cuba have done, Ecuador and Peru have decreed state of emergency, which also INCLUDES]. Meeting of Health Ministers Council European ruled yesterday that possibility. "
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